WTI Whipsaws as Gulf Supply Improves, Middle East Risk Returns

WTI crude futures are caught between improving Gulf supply—Saudi Arabia restored export routes and producers bypassed Strait of Hormuz disruption—and persistent refined-product tightness from Russian diesel export restrictions and Chinese cargo withdrawals. A reported US deployment of a third carrier strike group to the region reintroduces geopolitical risk, keeping prices volatile. The net market direction hinges on whether crude supply relief outweighs refined-product constraints and escalation fears.