Global fossil-fuel emissions projected to fall 0.5% in 2026 amid Hormuz crisis fallout

Carbon Brief analysis projects a 0.5% decline in global fossil-fuel emissions for 2026, driven by the economic and energy-market disruptions from the Hormuz crisis. The decline marks a deviation from recent growth trends, but the magnitude is modest and dependent on the crisis's duration and global policy responses. This matters as it could signal a shift in emissions trajectory, though it is primarily a consequence of crisis-induced demand destruction rather than deliberate decarbonization.