Brazil 2026: Lula leads first round, runoff tightens vs Bolsonaro

Recent polls (Quaest, Datafolha, Meio/Ideia) show Lula leading the first round but with a narrowing margin in second-round simulations against Flávio Bolsonaro. The trend indicates a competitive race, with Lula's first-round share declining from 43% to 38.4% in the latest Meio/Ideia poll. This matters as it signals a potential shift in voter sentiment ahead of the election.