Brazil yield curve flattens as poll shows Lula tied with Bolsonaro in runoff

Brazilian DI futures fell and the yield curve flattened after a Quaest poll showed President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 41% in a second-round simulation, increasing market odds of an opposition win in October. The move reflects investor repricing of fiscal and policy risk under a potential opposition government, with long-term rates declining more sharply than short-term. The trend is ongoing but the poll adds momentum to the repricing.