active→ StableMarketsConflictGeopolitics
Iran — 4 developments
Impact
7.5
Confidence
Medium
Evidence
11 sig · 10 src
Trajectory
→ Stable
Geo
IR US EU
First seen Jul 22·Updated Jul 22·Synthesized Jul 22
Assessment
Medium confidence — 3/11 signals corroborated across 10 independent sources
Evidence
Confirmed · 10 independent sources · 11 signals · 10 independent sources
Corroborated3 · 3 src · best low 42%
Emerging8 · 7 src · best low 62%
- Jul 22Iran maintains missile and drone production capacity at undisclosed facilities
- Jul 22World Bank warns of global growth contraction to 1.3% in 2026 amid potential Iran conflict
- Jul 22Explosions reported on Iran's Larak Island near Strait of Hormuz
- Jul 22World Bank warns of economic contraction from potential US-Iran conflict escalation
- Jul 22Explosions reported near Sirik and Qeshm Island in southern Iran
- Jul 22ECB expected to maintain 2.25% rate amid geopolitical inflationary risks
- Jul 21Iranian domestic stability deteriorates amid economic crisis and infrastructure degradation
- Jul 21Tomahawk cruise missile debris recovered following strikes on Iran
Discussion
…Sign in to add a note, contribute a source, or challenge the assessment.