Kinea outlines Brazil fiscal scenarios: NTN-Bs at 9% or 5.5%

Kinea Investimentos projects that Brazil's next president faces a fiscal adjustment of ~2% of GDP to stabilize debt. In the absence of adjustment, NTN-B yields could exceed 9%; with credible adjustment, they could fall to 5.5%. The scenarios highlight market sensitivity to fiscal policy direction ahead of the 2026 election.