US Holiday Retail Forecast Up 4.2% to $1.01T, Inflation Boosts Spending

The National Retail Federation projects US holiday spending will reach $1.01 trillion, a 4.2% increase year-over-year, partly driven by inflation. Higher-income shoppers and shifting purchasing habits are key contributors, with holiday sales representing 19% of annual retail. The forecast signals resilient consumer demand despite persistent price pressures, though the inflation component may overstate real volume growth.