Record US crude output fails to ease diesel crunch as distillate stocks hit 20-year low

US crude production is set to hit a record 13.8 million bpd in 2026, yet diesel prices are at record highs and distillate inventories are projected to fall below 100 million barrels for the first time in over two decades, staying below the five-year range through 2027. The disconnect highlights refining capacity and feedstock constraints rather than crude supply, signaling persistent diesel supply tightness and potential upward pressure on distillate prices and inflation.