Ukrainian drone campaign against Russian refineries triggers domestic fuel supply and economic contraction

The Iran-US conflict is escalating with direct attacks on US installations in the Gulf and Iranian strikes on US radar and air defense assets. Confidence in the assessment is medium due to the complexity of the situation and varying reports. Key uncertainties include the potential for a wider regional conflict and the effectiveness of US military strikes against Iran.

Iranian forces have directly targeted US installations in the Gulf, while Houthi rebels have declared a Red Sea blockade, threatening critical maritime chokepoints. Concurrently, Kuwaiti desalination and energy infrastructure have been struck by unconfirmed belligerents, and Indian refiners have suspended Iraqi crude loadings via the Strait of Hormuz due to security risks. The situation indicates a significant escalation in regional hostilities with high confidence, though the attribution for the Kuwaiti attacks and the full extent of Houthi blockade implementation remain uncertain.