PoliticsPartialMedium

Russia: United Russia's 58% Duma result inflated ~1.7x by ballot stuffing, analysis finds

Novaya Gazeta Europe, using Sergey Shpilkin's statistical method, estimates United Russia would have won ~34% without electoral fraud, versus the official ~58%. This suggests systematic ballot stuffing in the 2026 State Duma elections, though the analysis is inferential and not direct evidence of fraud. The finding underscores the gap between official results and plausible voter intent, reinforcing doubts about electoral integrity in Russia.

Meduza Englishabout 22 hours agoRUengCredibility 50%View source

Score Breakdown

Mosaic Score7.1

Confidence0.5

Significance0.5

Source credibility0.5

Intelligence Tags

#russia #elections #electoral-fraud #united-russia #statistical-analysis

Entities

country

Source

Part of 2 situations

activeGeopoliticsPolitics10h ago

Russia — 146 developments

→ stable·141 signals·US, RU, IR +36Score 5.8

activePolitics16h ago

United Russia Secures Record Duma Supermajority Amid Fraud Allegations

United Russia has secured a record supermajority in the September 2026 Duma elections, enabling unilateral constitutional changes and consolidating Kremlin control. This outcome was widely anticipated, though statistical analysis suggests significant electoral fraud inflated United Russia's results. Western nations have condemned the elections as a sham, citing opposition exclusion and voting in occupied Ukrainian territories.

→ stable·10 signals·RU, UAScore 5.5