European heat pump sales surge 10% as Iran war lifts fossil fuel prices, tax cuts bite

Residential heat pump sales across 12 European countries rose to 1.16 million in H1 2026, up from 1.05 million a year earlier, driven by the Iran war's impact on oil and gas prices and reduced electricity taxes in some states. The EU is pushing members to cut electricity tax rates below those on gas, a policy shift that could accelerate electrification of heating. The data underscores a structural demand shift toward electricity-based heating, with implications for gas demand and grid investment.