IMF Middle East crisis scenario could lift Australian fuel prices 30c, pressure RBA

The IMF's World Economic Outlook models a worsening Middle East crisis pushing oil to $130/bbl, which Australian economists say could add 30 cents per litre to petrol and force the RBA to consider rate hikes. The scenario is hypothetical but highlights the 'clear and present danger' to global growth and inflation from oil supply shocks. The impact on Australia is a direct transmission of geopolitical risk into domestic inflation and monetary policy.