PLA aerial activity near Taiwan reaches three-year low in H1 2026

China has demonstrably shifted its Taiwan pressure strategy from high-intensity aerial incursions to persistent gray-zone maritime coercion, corroborated by a 50% reduction in PLA air sorties and increased China Coast Guard presence in the Taiwan Strait. Concurrently, Sino-Russian naval cooperation has intensified, evidenced by joint live-fire drills within Japan's Exclusive Economic Zone, signaling a broader, more assertive maritime posture by both nations. The long-term strategic intent behind China's tactical recalibration and the full scope of Sino-Russian maritime coordination remain unclear.

The US military has conducted thirteen consecutive nights of airstrikes against IRGC targets, primarily in the Middle East, indicating a significant escalation in direct kinetic engagement. Concurrently, Houthi forces maintain a blockade of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, disrupting global maritime trade and reportedly conducting lethal strikes against Saudi-flagged vessels. Iranian state-affiliated media claims US missile strikes near the Strait of Hormuz and continuous US strikes on Iranian territory, though these claims lack independent verification.