China AI Threat Assessment: Pacing U.S. Development Misreads Beijing's Capabilities

An analysis argues that the prevailing U.S. narrative of a China 'AI race' overstates Beijing's capabilities, suggesting that pacing U.S. AI development is a flawed strategy. The piece contends that China's AI progress is constrained by structural factors, and that the 'missile gap' framing is misleading. This matters because it challenges a core assumption driving U.S. AI policy and export controls, potentially shifting the strategic debate.