Brazil 2026/27 Harvest Forecast: Record Output, Credit and El Niño Risks

Brazil's Conab projects a 1.3% increase in the 2026/27 agricultural harvest to 366.6 million tons, driven by expanded planted area despite lower average productivity. Corn output is forecast at 148 million tons, up 2.8%, contingent on favorable weather. The outlook is tempered by credit constraints, rising costs, and El Niño-related weather risks, which could affect global grain supply.