Brazil election race tightens; MSCI Brazil breaks electoral pattern, J.P. Morgan finds

J.P. Morgan notes MSCI Brazil is showing atypical performance as the presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tightens, with the index gaining 0.72% on days the PL candidate advances in polls. This breaks historical electoral patterns, suggesting markets are pricing a competitive race rather than a clear frontrunner. The finding is based on predictive market platforms, which are prohibited in Brazil, adding uncertainty to the analysis.