Brazil Insurers Reassess Risk Models Ahead of Intense El Niño

Brazil is bracing for a potentially severe El Niño, which historically brings drought to the North/Northeast and heavy rain to the South. Insurers like Brasilseg and Mapfre are adjusting risk models, but coverage is thin—only 9% of climate losses from 2022 to mid-2025 were insured. The 2023 El Niño drought cost R$ 43.7 billion, mainly in agribusiness, highlighting the economic exposure.