USGS Raises California Earthquake Probability to 74.1% by 2055

The USGS has updated its long-term earthquake forecast, increasing the probability of a major earthquake in California by 2055 from 72% to 74.1%, the first such revision in 12 years. The change reflects refined seismic models and new data, but the exact timing and location remain uncertain. This matters as it informs building codes, insurance, and disaster preparedness in a high-risk region.