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7.7

El Niño intensifies, 54% chance of record-strength event by Nov

NOAA reports rapid El Niño intensification in September, with 100% probability of a very strong event by year-end and a 54% chance of surpassing all recorded events since 1950. This would imply severe global weather disruptions, affecting agriculture, energy demand, and disaster risk. The forecast is based on NOAA's monitoring, but the exact intensity remains uncertain.

Valor Econômicoabout 5 hours agoUSCredibility 41%View source

Score Breakdown

Mosaic Score7.7
Model confidence0.7
Significance0.8
Source credibility0.4

Intelligence Tags

#el-nino#weather#noaa#climate-risk#agriculture#disaster

Locations

Tropical Pacific

Entities

country
Source

Part of a situation

activeGeopoliticsTrade2h ago

China — 133 developments

→ stable·44 signals·US, AU, ID +17Score 5.5

Related signals

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