Ethiopia-Eritrea ties severed; full-scale war risk escalates in Horn of Africa

Ethiopia and Eritrea have severed diplomatic ties, reversing years of rapprochement. This rupture coincides with a new rebel offensive in northern Ethiopia and reported drone activity over Addis Ababa, signaling an escalation of the internal conflict and potential for direct interstate war. Confidence in this assessment is Medium due to partially confirmed claims across multiple sources.

Ethiopia has severed all ties with Eritrea, which reciprocated, amid renewed internal conflict, escalating the risk of interstate war. Concurrently, Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia, and Sudan have formed a consolidated regional front, holding multiple summits and issuing joint declarations to counter Ethiopia's influence, particularly regarding Nile water and Red Sea access. The immediate triggers for the Ethiopia-Eritrea rupture and the specific military postures remain unclear, as do the concrete outcomes beyond rhetoric from the regional alignment.