Spain's fiscal watchdog flags spending deviation from EU commitments

Spain's Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (Airef) projects primary spending growth of 5.7% through 2028, well above the 3.2% committed to Brussels, signaling a structural deviation from fiscal targets. Airef also raised its GDP growth forecast to 2.6% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027, suggesting stronger near-term growth but persistent fiscal slippage. The warning underscores rising tension between national fiscal plans and EU fiscal rules, with potential implications for Spain's credibility and future EU fiscal negotiations.

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