Oil plunges 15% on US-Iran peace hopes despite Hormuz attacks

ICE Brent fell 15% week-on-week to $99/bbl as markets price in a US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough, despite continued attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. The selloff reflects expectations of reduced supply risk, but the persistence of hostilities suggests the peace premium may be overdone. This divergence between market pricing and on-the-ground conflict is the key uncertainty.

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